ECONOMIC WARNINGS – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  There have been a number of economic warnings recently, lost in the political primary battles and the continuing Hillary soap opera.  From marketwatch.com:

A reading of New York-area manufacturing conditions fell swiftly and brutally in August, one that could make the likelihood of an interest-rate hike next month — or even this year — more remote.

The Empire State general business conditions index nose-dived to a reading of negative 14.9, from positive 3.9 in July, marking the worst level since April 2009, the New York Fed said. The index, on a scale where any positive number indicates improving conditions, was far worse than the positive 4.5 forecast in a MarketWatch-compiled economist poll.

It wasn’t just weakness at the headline. The new-orders component sank to negative 15.7 from negative 3.5, and the shipments index sank to negative 13.8 from positive 7.9.

Readings for unfilled orders, delivery time, inventories and average employee workweek also were negative, and the index for prices received just barely stayed positive at 0.9 from 5.3 in July.

Oddly, perhaps, the index for future business activity climbed seven points to 33.6.

Manufacturers have complained for some time about the strength of the U.S. dollar, and turbulence in China probably isn’t helping matters.

That said, the Empire State index is the first of a wave of regional manufacturing reports, and generally economists pay closer heed to the Philadelphia Fed report, which comes out Thursday.

COMMENT:  It is one indicator.  We might get some good news, as well.  But one thing we can glean from political polls and the volatility within both political parties is that there's substantial discontent among Americans, and much of it stems from economic anxiety.  Yes, jobs are being created, but they're often go-nowhere jobs or jobs that are lower on the scale than the job seekers had before.

In addition, Obama runs an administration, like the Carter administration, that has devastated American morale, and morale is critical to the building of a new economy.  One of the great achievements of Reagan is that he rebuilt American morale and confidence.  Obama doesn't notice stuff like that.

August 17, 2015